Every summer, manufacturers begin the same exercise. Forecasts are updated. Budgets are built. Sales targets are negotiated. Marketing priorities are debated. Before long, someone opens last year’s spreadsheet and starts adjusting numbers upward or downward based on what happened over the previous twelve months.
It is a logical place to start. It is also where many planning mistakes begin.
Historical data has always been an important input, but it has become a less reliable predictor of future performance. Markets are changing more quickly than the assumptions built into most planning models. Looking backward still matters, but relying on yesterday’s conditions to explain tomorrow’s opportunities has become increasingly risky.
The Market Keeps Changing
The foodservice industry has spent the past several years adapting to forces that did not exist, or at least did not exist at today’s scale.
Labor shortages have changed how kitchens operate. Technology has altered how operators place orders and interact with suppliers. Inflation has permanently reshaped value perceptions. Healthcare and senior living continue to evolve. Younger chefs bring different expectations than the generation before them. Consumers expect convenience, customization, and speed while remaining sensitive to price.
None of these trends appeared overnight, yet together they have changed the operating environment in ways that simple year-over-year comparisons often fail to capture.
A budget built primarily from historical sales may accurately describe where a company has been. It may not accurately reflect where customers are headed.
Patterns Are Not Predictions
One of the easiest mistakes in planning is assuming that a consistent pattern will continue simply because it always has. Markets rarely move in straight lines.
A customer who purchased aggressively last year may be working through excess inventory today. Another may be delaying equipment investments because of economic uncertainty while increasing spending in other categories. A chain adding new locations may simultaneously reduce menu complexity. A distributor may be gaining customers while changing how purchasing decisions are made internally.
The numbers tell you what happened. They rarely explain why it happened or whether the same conditions will exist next year. Understanding those underlying drivers often matters more than extending a trend line.
Ask Better Questions
The most valuable planning discussions begin by challenging assumptions rather than defending them.
- What has fundamentally changed since last year’s plan?
- Which customer behaviors appear structural rather than temporary?
- What decisions are operators making differently today than they were eighteen months ago?
- What risks are we assuming away because they are difficult to quantify?
These questions rarely produce immediate answers. They do, however, produce better conversations and ultimately better decisions.
Planning for Possibilities
The strongest strategic plans are rarely built around a single forecast. They acknowledge uncertainty while preparing for multiple outcomes.
That does not mean abandoning historical data. It means recognizing its limitations.
Past performance remains an important chapter in the story, but it is no longer the entire story.
The companies that outperform over the next several years will not necessarily be those with the most sophisticated spreadsheets. They will be the ones that combine historical performance with a deeper understanding of how operators, consumers, and markets are evolving.
Planning has never been about predicting the future with certainty. It has always been about making better decisions before the future arrives.
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